Tonight marks the start of a journey for twelve young Americans in the Land of the Rising Sun. The 2006 FIBA World Championship begins tonight in Japan. As a public service I decided to offer my unsolicited preview and analysis of the eight teams with the best chance to win the championship according to the odds posted yesterday at bodog.com. For the record, I am not advocating any type of gambling, merely providing some information.
FranceA France championship will reward its supporters with $16 for every $1 they wager. The team is tenth in the FIBA rankings and features five current NBA players: Mickael Pietrus of the Golden State Warriors, Boris Diaw of the Phoenix Suns, Johan Petro of the Seattle Supersonics, and my favorite French player, Ronny Turiaf of the Los Angeles Lakers. That’s a fair amount of NBA talent. Tony Parker was on the team’s roster but a broken finger right before the tournament will keep him out of commission.
The team also features Frederic Weis, who was immortalized during the 2000 Olympics when Vince Carter literally dunked over him. Earlier this week, the French team beat the European Champion Greece 72-68 in an exhibition game in China. The French team isn’t a bad sleeper pick. But the fact that it’s in the same group with Argentina and Serbia & Montenegro makes it less likely the team will advance.
GreeceI was shocked to see that betting on Greece would pay out 10 to 1 since the only Greek player I could think of was Jake Tsakalidis and he’s not even on their roster. According to the FIBA rankings, they are the eighth best team in the world. In 2005, the team won the FIBA Europe Championship. The team throttled Germany 84-47 in an exhibition game a few days after the loss to France. They are in Group C with Brazil and Lithuania so like France, I don’t see them getting very far.
BrazilLike Greece, a bet on Brazil will pay out 10 to 1. Brazil is fifteenth in the FIBA rankings and its roster includes two NBA players: Leandro Barbosa of the Phoenix Suns and Anderson Varejao of the Cleveland Cavaliers. I did not find Nene Hilario on the team’s roster and I assume it’s because he is still recovering from the knee injury that had him miss all but one game of the 2005-06 NBA season. Last year Brazil won the FIBA Americas Championship with victories over Argentina and the United States. Brazil faced the United States in an exhibition game earlier this month and lost the game by only four points. However, the team followed that game with a close loss to Germany so I’m not sure how strong their team really is.
LithuaniaNow we’re getting to the true contenders. A dollar will get you $8 if you bet on Lithuania to win it all. According to FIBA, the team is the fourth best in the world. It features three NBA players, although I only recognized one of them, Darius Songaila of the Chicago Bulls. The other two NBA players are Arvydas Macijauskas of the New Orleans Hornets and Linas Kleiza of the Denver Nuggets. I’m not sure why Sarunas Jasikevicius of the Indian Pacers isn’t on the team this year as he has been a prominent member of the team in the past. Lithuania was easily defeated, 104-90, by the United States earlier this week and barely beat South Korea 83-81. However I still consider the team a good bet since they usually do well in international competition. They faced the United States in the bronze medal game in the 2004 Olympics. Even though they lost the medal game, they defeated the US during the preliminary round.
Serbia & MontenegroA bet on Serbia will pay out at 7 to 1. Serbia doesn’t have a FIBA ranking but FIBA ranks the now defunct Yugoslavia team as number 2 as their rankings are based within the scope of the last two Olympic games. The only NBA player on the team is Darko Milicic of the Orlando Magic, whose claim to fame until now has been the dubious distinction of being selected with the second pick in the 2003 NBA draft, before Carmelo Anthony, Dwayne Wade, and Chris Bosh.
While Darko may never be as good as those three players, he did show signs of improvement after being traded from Detroit to Orlando. In 30 games for the Magic he averaged 7.6 points, 4 rebounds and 2 blocks in about 21 minutes. He averaged 1.5 points, 1 rebound, and half a block for Detroit in 5.6 minutes. Last week he helped lead Serbia to a blowout victory over Argentina, 83-64. Serbia is the defending FIBA World Championship having won the tournament in 2002. However, I would be hesitant to bet on Serbia given that they failed to get out of group play at the 2004 Olympics.
SpainA dollar will get you $6 if you decide to put your money on Spain. The team is fifth in the FIBA rankings and features Pau Gasol of the Memphis Grizzlies and Jose Calderon of the Toronto Raptors. Spain has been playing very well in the exhibition games leading up to the tournament with convincing victories over Argentina, 87-66, and Serbia, 80-65. They might not be as dominant once the tournament begins, but they wouldn’t be a bad pick to win it all.
ArgentinaA bet on Argentina will pay out at 5.5 to 1. If I were going to put money on the tournament, I would bet on them. That’s not to say I think Argentina will win, I just think you’re getting good odds with this bet. The team is the third best in the world according to FIBA and features Manu Ginobili and Fabricio Oberto of the San Antonio Spurs, Andres Nocioni of the Chicago Bulls, and Carlos Delfino of the Detroit Pistons. The team is the defending Olympic gold medallist and came in second at the 2002 FIBA World Championship. They also came in second place at the 2005 FIBA Americas Championship. They haven’t played well in the exhibition games leading up to the tournament having lost to both Spain and Serbia. But they should be very tough to beat once the tournament gets going.
United StatesAnd now we come to the reclamation project. The US basketball team is on a mission to reclaim its positions as the preeminent hoops squad in the whole world after finishing with only the bronze medal at the 2004 Olympics and coming in sixth place at the 2002 World Championship. I sincerely hope and believe they can do it. They are my pick to win the championship. But at 1 to 5, you’d have to be a fool to put money on them.
According to the FIBA rankings, the US team is still the number 1 team in the world. However it hasn’t felt that way since that awful showing at the 2002 World Championship. The team is the only one to feature 12 NBA players: Carmelo Anthony, Shane Battier, Chris Bosh, Elton Brand, Kirk Hinrich, Dwight Howard, LeBron James, Antawn Jamison, Joe Johnson, Brad Miller, Chris Paul, and Dwayne Wade.
At this point I would like to formally apologize to Carmelo Anthony for suggesting in an earlier column that he be left off the team. Carmelo has arguably been the team’s best player and seems to be the most dedicated to restoring glory to the US. I thought the team had too many small forwards and hadn’t even considered the possibility of going with smaller line-ups (with James at the 4 spot at times). I guess that’s why Coach K is in Japan leading the team and I’m sitting at home.
Aside from a narrow victory against Brazil, the US has looked impressive in its five exhibition games over the last few weeks. While I don’t expect the team to dominate, I do like how the team is composed. You have your three superstars and team captains in Anthony, James and Wade; a good ball-handling guard in Paul; good perimeter shooters in Hinrich, Battier, and Johnson (the latter two also being excellent role players and defenders); big men that have range in Jamison and Miller; and finally you have athletic big men in Brand, Bosh, and Howard. Sure it would be nice to have Kobe Bryant, Shawn Marion, and Michael Redd on the team, but I have confidence in this team and fully expect them to bring home the championship and reclaim the title of the best basketball team in the world.